TSMC this week has announced plans to spend $100 billion on new production facilities as well as R&D over the next three years. The world's largest contract maker of chips says that its fabs are currently working at full load, so to meet demand for its services going forward it will need (much) more capacity. Among TSMC's facilities to go online in the next three to four years are the company's fab in Arizona as well as its first 2nm-capable fab in Taiwan.

"TSMC is entering a period of higher growth as the multiyear megatrends of 5G and HPC are expected to fuel strong demand for our semiconductor technologies in the next several years," a statement by TSMC with the Taiwan Stock Exchange reads. "In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic also accelerates digitalization in every aspect. In order to keep up with demand, TSMC expects to invest $100 billion over the next three years to increase capacity to support the manufacturing and R&D of advanced semiconductor technologies. TSMC is working closely with our customers to address their needs in a sustainable manner."

$100 Billion to Be Spent on Fabs

TSMC's capital expenditures (CapEx) budget last year was $17.2 billion, whereas its R&D budget was $3.72 billion, or approximately 8.2% of its revenue. This year the company intends to increase its CapEx to somewhere in the range of $25 to $28 billion, which would make for a 45% to 62% year-over-year increase in that spending. The company's R&D spending will also rise as its revenue is expected to grow. In total, TSMC plans to invest around $30 billion or more on CapEx and R&D this year. Taken altogether, if the company intends to spend around $100 billion from 2021 through 2023, its expenditures in the next two years will be roughly flat with 2021, something that should please its investors.

TSMC has a number of important fab projects ahead of it.

  • First up, the company needs to build and equip its N5-capable fab in Arizona. The facility will cost around $12 billion, will have a capacity of 20,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM), and will come online in 2024. A recent rumor indicates that TSMC might actually increase capacity of the facility and/or equip it for a more advanced fabrication process, which will increase its cost, but TSMC has never confirmed this information.
  • Secondly, TSMC will need to equip its N3-capable fab in Tainan, Taiwan, which is projected to start volume production in the second half of 2022.
  • TSMC's third capital-expensive project is the company's N2 (2nm) qualified GigaFab in Hsinchu, Taiwan. Furthermore, TSMC is mulling to build another N2-capable fab in Baoshan, Taiwan. Meanwhile, TSMC still has to complete development of its GAAFET-based N2 node.
  • Last but not least, TSMC is set to build two more advanced packaging facilities in Taiwan. The company already has four of such facilities, but it believes that demand for chip stacking and advanced packaging will rise in the future and it will need more capacities. Chip packaging factories are not as expensive as semiconductor production facilities, but they still cost quite a lot.

Recently TSMC wrote a letter to its customers where it explained that its fabs have been fully utilized for about a year now and it still cannot meet rising demand for chips. To that end, the company would have to 'suspend wafer price reductions for a year from the start of 2022,' according to a Bloomberg report.

Competition Intensifying

Right now, TSMC is the world's largest contract maker of chips with no rivals that can match its total production capacity. A some of TSMC's rivals, including GlobalFoundries and UMC, have pulled the plug on development of their leading-edge fabrication processes, so the number of companies that can offer leading-edge nodes has decreased. Yet paradoxically, the competition is also escalating in other respects.

Samsung Semiconductor, which has foundry, DRAM, storage, SoC, and a number of other operations, has been increasing its CapEx investments in the recent years. The company spent $93.2 billion on chip production from 2017 to 2020 and is on track spend another ~$28 billion in 2021, according to IC Insights. Samsung Foundry is still several times smaller than TSMC in terms of sales and capacity, but the gap is closing.

In addition to Samsung Foundry, Intel recently introduced its integrated device manufacturer 2.0 (IDM 2.0) plan that includes offering advanced foundry services and essentially compete against TSMC (while also using its services when needed). Intel has already announced plans to invest $20 billion in two new fabs in Arizona and said it would invest more in expansion of chip production in other parts of the USA as well as in Europe and other parts of the world.

To stay ahead of existing and emerging rivals, TSMC needs to keep investing in R&D and expand its production capacities, so a $100 billion investment plan will be instrumental for these purposes.

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  • zodiacfml - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link

    Crazy. It is just a few years ago when TSMC was several process generations behind Intel and Intel 10nm was supposed to be available in ~2017
  • Samus - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link

    Basically what happened is around 2014 Intel unveiled the hottest mainstream node in the industry, and hasn't since. Meanwhile Samsung, TSMC, GloFo, etc have all surpassed them by two generations because of dysfunctional engineering miscalculations by Intel that their competitors didn't have.
  • EthiaW - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link

    Taiwan is said to have a strategy named" Silicon Sheild". By investing heavily on Fab capacity on its land even when it's not economically optimal, they bet on an US intervention because the China attack will cut the chip supply chain and set off a great recession. The more fabs, the more motivation for US to be embroiled, the more chance Taiwan may survive.
    It's somehow thespian to see those meticulous fabs built and destined to be wiped out by brute force.
  • Oxford Guy - Saturday, April 3, 2021 - link

    China will win. Look at Hong Kong. Look at the Crimea.

    It’s a good time to be the aggressor in global politics.
  • back2future - Saturday, April 3, 2021 - link

    maybe for a while, but finally aggressors/dictators loose societies cultural values and progress, what's based on diversity (and many of dictators are so proud of their cultural historical influence)?
  • Samus - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link

    This is what happens when the USA is no longer the world superpower. The bullies of the world know they are weak and will do what they want. The last time the USA did anything noteworthy on the global stage to stop aggression and somewhat successfully flexed their muscles was in Kuwait. 30 years ago. Everything since has been a disaster and the United States is a joke full of warnings and no action.
  • back2future - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link

    maybe its not on me for to reply, but me thinking, that bullies live to warnings seem being a joke until recognizing situation is getting real that way predicted
    What's the value of E=m*c^2 in the hands of bullies or mature characters working on progress, because of having conceptional authority?
    The Roman Empire was success, in their time, because of distributing supportive cultural behaviors, even to their "opponents" people. Kuwait should have been cultivated on/supported with regenerative solar energy structures, getting independent from their neighbors countries income on fossil oil resources.
    China acts authoritarian (maybe to some extent illiberal, like presented on media abroad) on "their" country and neighbor countries. Don't know how China will behave if they could suppress liberalism on remote or "developed"/industrial nations? My experience does not show signs of this with being connected to China through trading. China is more than 3500 years of documented written culture and "中华人民共和国" "People's Republic of China" is around 1.3 billion people accept being connected with, not Taiwan or Tibet or Democrats (to some extent and within explicit context of contrary ideology). It's more to answer this, than another demonstration of power of "rude majorities" Democracy?
    Let the muscle think about this and ask its conclusion?
  • EthiaW - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link

    Despite all your worries, taiwan invests a meager 14b usd annually to defend itself, less than TSMC on its fab. When US generals talk about the oncoming invasion in 5 years, taiwan is acting nothing like a regime facing existential threat in contrary. Seems that they totally bet on the silicon sheild.
  • back2future - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link

    Considering US generals to invade a full democracy (given there's no reunion to PRC in between)?
    US Flawed democracy
    RoC Taiwan Full democracy
    PR China Authoritarian
  • Duncan Macdonald - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link

    Compared to the price of a fab, a desalination plant (and a power station if necessary) is small change. TSMC could easily afford to build a desalination plant in Taiwan to convert seawater to the fresh water needed for its operations. (Taiwan is an island with plenty of access to sea water - the same is NOT true of Arizona.)

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