Eventual Design Performance Projections

Alongside the ISO-process node IPC, power and area projections, Arm also made projection of possible eventual implementations of the V1 and N2. These would naturally no longer be ISO-process, but the company’s expectations of what actual possible products might end up as in future designs.

The most important slide and disclosure in this regard is the fact that a Neoverse N2 design on TSMC’s 5nm is expected to achieve the same power as well as the same area as a TSMC 7nm Neoverse N1 design today.

In general, that’s a relatively large presumption, but could possibly pan out if the vendors are able to achieve a good implementation. We don’t have too many details as to the 7nm node generation of Amazon’s or Ampere’s current N1 chips, but I would assume that they’re baseline N7 – at least similar to that of what AMD uses in their EPYC 7002 and 7003 chips.

Still, a -40% power reduction from N7 to N5 is a very high goal and assumption to make. The only N5 chips we’ve had in-house to date, the Kirin 9000, and Apple A14, showcased only a rough 10% efficiency advantage over their N7P predecessors. N7P being roughly 15% better than N7, that’s still only somewhat 26% better efficiency.

Arm expects that the current generation N1 implementations to day to not have fully achieved their potential as it was the vendor’s first attempt with the IP. Arm expects that the following generations with more experience, better implementations with for example more metal layers, to be able to squeeze out more performance and power efficiency on the N5 node.

In terms of socket performance, Arm is expecting some very large generational gains versus a 64C N1 product today – it’s to be noted that these are Arm pre-silicon figures and not the Graviton2.

The “Traditional 2020” chips are the 24C Xeon 8268 and the 64C EPYC 7742. I would ignore the “Traditional 2021” parts here – Arm was aiming and estimating the performance of Intel’s newest 40C Ice-Lake and 64C Milan, however the presentation and figures here were integrated before AMD and Intel actually launched those systems – we have actual benchmark numbers in a custom graph below.

One metric Arm was focusing on was per-thread performance, where the “traditional” cores from AMD and Intel are falling short of the performance of Arm’s Neoverse cores.

Arm here is being somewhat sneaky in their presentation as they are trying to only focus on per-thread performance in cloud environments, where typically things operate on a vCPU basis, and essentially SMT-enabled designs from AMD and Intel naturally fall behind quite a lot in per-thread performance.

I can’t really blame Arm for depicting the performance figures like this – the cloud vendors today don’t really differentiate between real cores and SMT cores in vCPU environments, even having pricing that’s arguably unfair to SMT-enabled designs, which is why we’ve deemed Amazon’s Graviton2 m6g instances to vastly outperform AMD and Intel instances in terms of perf/W and perf/thread.

I wasn’t happy with Arm’s slides not including 1 thread per core performance figures for the SMT systems, so I included my own chart based on actual measured performance figures on the various platforms. The V1 and N2 figures use Arm’s performance scaling versus the Neoverse N1 datapoint, and I’ve baselined that to the Graviton2 scores we’ve measured earlier last year. Arm uses the same compiler flags as we do and also GCC 10.2, so the scores should also be compatible – with the only discrepancy being that Arm used 2MB page sizes.

The Neoverse V1 system uses 96 cores at 2.7GHz with 1MB L2 per core, on a 128MB 2GHz mesh, with 8 DDR5-4800 memory controllers. The N2 datapoint uses 128 3GHz cores at 1MB per L2, 96MB 2GHz mesh, with 10 DDR5-4800 memory controllers.

Arm’s per-thread performance lead doesn’t look that great here when looking at the 1T/C figures of AMD and Intel, but admittedly when in a vCPU scenario, Arm’s design would vastly outperform the SMT chips.

Generally speaking, the performance figures look good when it comes to per-socket performance, but generally that’s to be expected given the new 5nm process node and the more advanced memory controller technology in the projected figures.

AMD's next-generation Genoa should feature more massive performance jumps through the adoption of N5, DDR5, and transition away from their 14nm IO die. IPC and core count increases should also close the gap that’s depicted today. Intel’s next generation Sapphire Rapids should also improve the situation – albeit how that ends up depends on how much they’ll be able to squeeze out of 10nm SuperFin node in relation to what we’ve seen a few weeks ago on Ice Lake-SP.

Usually, I’m more open to Arm’s performance projections, however this time around the V1 and N2’s performance projections are extremely optimistic, especially since they’re completely dependent on the vendors achieving good implementations on N5 and actually reaching the projected 40% perf/W process node and implementation power efficiency gains. Based on what I’ve seen in the mobile space, I remain quite sceptical, and will be adopting a wait & see approach this time around.

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  • Dug - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - link

    Now is when I wish ARM was publicly traded.
  • mode_13h - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - link

    Well, you could buy NVDA, under the assumption the acquisition will go through.
  • dotjaz - Thursday, April 29, 2021 - link

    SoftBank is already publicly traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Why rely on NVIDIA buyout which for all likelihood won't happen any time soon if at all.
  • mode_13h - Thursday, April 29, 2021 - link

    > SoftBank is already publicly traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

    They also invested heavily in WeWork, when it was highly over-valued. I have no idea what other nutty positions they might've taken, but I think it's not a great proxy for ARM just due to its sheer size.
  • cjcoats - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - link

    As an environmental modeling (HPCC) developer: what is the chance of putting a V1 machine on my desk in the foreseeable future?
  • Silver5urfer - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - link

    Never. Since there has to be an OEM for these chips to put in DIY and Consumer machines, so far except the HPE's A64FX ARM there's no way any consumer can buy these ARM processors and that is also highly expensive over 5 digit figure. And then the drivers / sw ecosystem comes into play, there's passion projects like Pi as we all know but they are nowhere near the Desktop class performance.

    ARM Graviton 2 was made because AWS wants to save money on their Infrastructure, that's why their Annapurna design team is working there. Simply because of that reason Amazon put more effort onto it AND the fact that ARM is custom helps them to tailor it to their workloads and spread their cost.

    Altra is niche, Marvell is nowhere near as their plans was to make custom chips on order. And from the coverage above we see India, Korea, EU use custom design licensing for their HPC Supercomputer designs.

    Then there's a rumor that MS is also making their own chips, again custom tailored for their Azure, Google also rumored esp their Whitechapel mobile processor (it won't beat any processor on the market that's my guess) and maybe their GCP oriented own design.

    These numbers projection do look good vs x86 SMT machines finally to me after all these years, BUT have to see how they will compete once they are out vs 2021 HW is the big question, since if these CPUs outperform the EPYC Milan technically AWS should replace all of them right ? since you have Perf / Power improvements by a massive scale. Idk, gotta see. Then the upcoming AMD Genoa and Sapphire Rapids competition will also show how the landscape will be.
  • SarahKerrigan - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - link

    If they don't replace all the x86 systems in AWS with ARM, that *must* mean Neoverse is somehow secretly inferior, right??

    Or, you know, it could mean that x86 compatibility matters for a fair chunk of the EC2 installed base, especially on the Windows Server side (which is not small) but on Linux too (Oracle DB, for instance, which does not yet run on ARM.)
  • Silver5urfer - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - link

    That was a joke.
  • Spunjji - Friday, April 30, 2021 - link

    Was it, though? Schrodinger's Joke strikes again.
  • Raqia - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 - link

    Maybe not an V1 but you could probably get a more open high performance ARM core than the Apple MX series pretty soon:

    https://investor.qualcomm.com/news-events/press-re...

    "The first Qualcomm® Snapdragon™ platforms to feature Qualcomm Technologies' new internally designed CPUs are expected to sample in the second half of 2022 and will be designed for high performance ultraportable laptops."

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